Self-fulfilling prophecy

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Pigeon
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Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Mon Sep 17, 2012 12:08 am

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behaviour. Although examples of such prophecies can be found in literature as far back as ancient Greece and ancient India, it is 20th-century sociologist Robert K. Merton who is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalizing its structure and consequences. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, Merton defines self-fulfilling prophecy in the following terms: e.g. when Roxanna falsely believes her marriage will fail, her fears of such failure actually cause the marriage to fail.

The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.

In other words, a prophecy, strongly held belief, or a delusion, declared as truth when it is actually false may sufficiently influence people, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the once-false belief.

History

Merton's concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy stems from the Thomas theorem, which states that "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences." According to Thomas, people react not only to the situations they are in, but also, and often primarily, to the way they perceive the situations and to the meaning they assign to these perceptions. Therefore, their behaviour is determined in part by their perception and the meaning they ascribe to the situations they are in, rather than by the situations themselves. Once people convince themselves that a situation really has a certain meaning, regardless of whether it actually does, they will take very real actions in consequence.

Merton took the concept a step further and applied it to recent social phenomena. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, he conceives of a bank run at the fictional Last National Bank, over which Cartwright Millingville presides. It is a typical bank, and Millingville has run it honestly and quite properly. As a result, like all banks, it has some liquid assets (cash), but most of its assets are invested in various ventures. Then one day, a large number of customers come to the bank at once—the exact reason is never made clear. Customers, seeing so many others at the bank, begin to worry. False rumours spread that something is wrong with the bank and more customers rush to the bank to try to get some of their money out while they still can. The number of customers at the bank increases, as does their annoyance and excitement, which in turn fuels the false rumours of the bank's insolvency and upcoming bankruptcy, causing more customers to come and try to withdraw their money. At the beginning of the day—the last one for Millingville's bank—the bank was not insolvent. But the rumour of insolvency caused a sudden demand of withdrawal of too many customers, which could not be answered, causing the bank to become insolvent and declare bankruptcy. Merton concludes this example with the following analysis:

The parable tells us that public definitions of a situation (prophecies or predictions) become an integral part of the situation and thus affect subsequent developments. This is peculiar to human affairs. It is not found in the world of nature, untouched by human hands. Predictions of the return of Halley's comet do not influence its orbit. But the rumoured insolvency of Millingville's bank did affect the actual outcome. The prophecy of collapse led to its own fulfilment.

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Royal
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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Royal » Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:01 am

I think the self fulfilling prophecy is completely dependent on material risk and the intelligence of the audience involved. Hopefully our generals are not dingbats.

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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:25 am

The mid east war is one waiting in the wings.

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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:47 am

I have to wonder if another huge war will be because of this mode of thought. People seem to believe it will happen.

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Royal
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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Royal » Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:55 am

Pigeon wrote:I have to wonder if another huge war will be because of this mode of thought. People seem to believe it will happen.
Leader(s) have to step up and break down any kind of "group think" that may be brewing. Group think is a term commonly referred to conflict avoidance or becoming lazy and not picking up the work load. But it's effect can work into the opposite direction.

Because of the lack of responsibility for the individual person, the group can take on more risk and become involved in more nefarious activities.

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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:00 am

I think we are looking at the elementary workings of the CIA.

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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:02 am

Leader(s) have to step up and break down any kind of "group think" that may be brewing.
Our leaders are the ones using group think to manipulate people to at least some extent.

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Royal
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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Royal » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:04 am

I believe so.

I think I have been accused 3 times in my life. Objectivity, insight, and a little experience in the world goes far.

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Royal
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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Royal » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:04 am

So who's the patsy. You or me?

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Pigeon
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Re: Self-fulfilling prophecy

Post by Pigeon » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:11 am

Royal wrote: I think I have been accused 3 times in my life.
What were the charges and (maybe) by who?

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